NEWS ANALYSIS

BEIRUT, Lebanon – On a freshly paved road that runs from Baalbak to Ersal in northern Lebanon stands a towering billboard.
 
On one half of the billboard is Syrian President Bashar Assad, in military uniform. On the other half is a portrait of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese political and paramilitary organization that has been labeled a terrorist group by Washington.

The conflict in neighboring Syria has put Hezbollah, the staunch regional resistance movement, in a tough spot. Despite praising the Arab Spring democracy movement in many other countries, Hezbollah and its leader Nasrallah are standing by the Assad regime, even as it kills thousands of its own people to preserve power.

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While Hezbollah supports Assad’s regime, the broader Lebanese population is divided and hesitant to take sides. Nonetheless, there is growing concern that this distance will be increasingly difficult to maintain as the conflict spirals on.

In fact, both pro- and anti-Assad groups have traded accusations that the other is receiving material support from inside Lebanon

Rivals or bedfellows?
On the surface, Assad and Nasrallah appear to be opposites.

Assad is the president of a country that is increasingly isolated in the international community and is widely unpopular on the Arab street. His government is embattled and his grip on power challenged.

Nasrallah, on the other hands, is the head of a popular Lebanese resistance movement and a domestic political force. He enjoys widespread support on the Arab street, particularly for his staunch resistance to Israel and Western imperialism in the region.

Nasrallah’s organization is considered the strongest non-state actor in the Middle East. It commands respect for its firepower and discipline. Nasrallah’s leadership of Hezbollah is not in doubt. Ideologically, Nasrallah and his organization draw on their Shiite Muslim religious beliefs as the steadfast backbone of their convictions.

In comparison, Assad's Baath party, which rules Syria, is staunchly secular. 

But when it comes to understanding why the two men share the same billboard, as well as campaign posters at pro-Assad rallies,  there is only one measuring stick, according to a Hezbollah official who spoke on the condition of anonymity: "What is the specific party's proximity to the resistance of Western and Israeli aggressions and occupation in the Middle East?” He added, "Nothing else matters.”

Shared enemy
For years, Syria was a conduit by which Hezbollah was able to acquire support from its main backer Iran (also a close ally of the Syrian regime). Because Syria aided and supported Hezbollah's top priority – perpetuating resistance to Israeli occupation – it was considered an ally despite their differences.

While the organization supports the democratic aspirations of all people in the region, there cannot be a "conflict of priorities.”
Hezbollah’s "only priority is the perpetuation of resistance” to Israel, the official said.

That helps explain why Assad and Nasrallah are pictured on the billboard and other posters around Lebanon conveying a message of solidarity. The two men are allies because they are celebrated as pillars of Arab resistance and enemies of Israel. It is the classic "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" scenario.

In fact, Nasrallah made a rare public appearance in December to address his followers and make clear his support for the Syrian regime.  

"We support the reforms in Syria and we stand with the regime against the resistance movement," Nasrallah said at a rally in Beirut on Dec. 6. He has rarely been seen in public since Hezbollah’s war with Israel in 2006 out of fear of an Israeli assassination attempt.

His appearance was meant to reiterate not only his support for Assad’s regime – but also to diminish any sense that Hezbollah had been weakened by the ongoing conflict in Syria. 

It was also meant to thwart what the Hezbollah official said is seen as a major outgrowth of the "Arab awakenings" – inviting more Western influence and interference, if not dominance, in the region. For the Arab revolutions to succeed, he believes, “Western meddling and interference in the region must be rejected and true Arab sovereignty established.”

To Hezbollah, losing Assad means losing an ally; so by their calculation, it is more important to avoid losing their ally Assad than gain a pro-democratic and Western-oriented Syria.

This has been Hezbollah's position towards the Western-led invasion of Iraq, the Western-backed airstrikes on Libya and it would be the same for any Western action against Iran, the official added.

Not fighting other people's wars
What would Hezbollah do if Iran is attacked by Israel and/or the U.S.? Would it fire back at Israel? Target American or Israeli interests? Remain on the sidelines?

"Constructive ambiguity" is how the Hezbollah official described their approach. "Why would Hezbollah tell its enemies what it will do?"

"We have the right to self-defense.” But he quickly added, “We are a resistance movement that is Lebanese, we don't fight other peoples’ war, we fight to defend ourselves.”

 

TRIPOLI, Lebanon – They are just 55 miles away, but for Syrian refugees now in Tripoli, Lebanon, couldn't be more different.

We spent a cold and rainy day in Lebanon's north, crisscrossing from hospitals, to apartments to slums, meeting with Syrians fleeing their country and seeking refuge in Lebanon.

A 27-year-old patient, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said he was shot in the leg by a sniper’s bullet. The wound was so severe, he couldn't get the proper treatment inside Baba Amr. Afraid to go to any hospitals inside Syria for fear of being turned over to government forces, he and his brother decided to make the trek to Lebanon. For four days they moved by car from house to house under cover of darkness and the constant barrage of war all around them.

When they crossed the border they were taken by activists to a hospital in Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city, but it was too late. The leg was severely infected and doctors had to amputate it at the knee.

For a country that over the years has seen its own share of violence, forcing many of its own citizens to take refuge in Syria, it's new for Lebanese to see Syrian refugees in their country. So much so that international aid workers and activists say Lebanon has been slow to acknowledge and deal with the flow of Syrians across the border into their country.

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Part of problem, Syrian activists say, is the attempt by the Lebanese government to remain on the sidelines of the conflict – without conceding that its side effects are beginning to seep in.   

More than 7,000 Syrians refugees have fled into Lebanon and registered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.  The majority of them have crossed into the north of Lebanon, activists tell us.

Dangerous trek
Over the past few days, dozens of injured residents of the besieged cities of Baba Amr and Homs have made the dangerous trek across the border. None of those we interviewed agreed to show their faces on camera. All were reluctant to give us their real names fearing their family members still living inside Syria would be hunted down.

Another refugee who called himself Abu Fares saw the war in Syria spreading five months ago and decided to flee the country with his family. Back then, Syrian officials didn't object to single families exiting all together. Now, activists say, Syrian border guards will turn back families that appear to be "fleeing" the country. More families have taken the route of entering the country illegally, making it difficult to keep an accurate number of who has entered Lebanon.

So far, no large refugee camps have been set up inside Lebanon for displaced Syrians –  unlike in neighboring Jordan, which has also taken in thousands of refugees.

Instead, what has emerged is an acute housing crisis for the families currently in Lebanon. The majority of families have taken refuge in apartments in rundown buildings, often at exuberant prices.

Abu Fares and his family of nine are living in a small shack in an illegal seaside slum in Tripoli. Without any heat or regular electricity, they have struggled to survive, relying instead on handouts for clothes, blankets and medicine. His heart and back conditions have made it impossible for him to work in the low-paying, labor intensive jobs most Syrians can vie for.
                                                                                                                            
Puddles of water filled the narrow walkways in between the shacks, and makeshift wiring and electric cables crisscrossed the alleys to the small, cramped and humid huts. Despite the hardship, Abu Fares said he has no regrets that he fled Syria and said he has no plans to return until the Assad regime steps down from power.

Not really a welcome mat
For Syrian activists, Lebanon has proven to be a dangerous country to operate. Lebanon’s weak central government has failed to fully embrace other Arab countries and international calls for Assad to step down. Lebanon for now has opted to remain impartial in the conflict, tacitly allowing refugees to come into the country, but not allowing the opposition to openly equip the Free Syrian Army.

Instead, Syrian opposition activists say they are routinely harassed by Lebanese security forces and military intelligence.

More importantly, Syria's strongest Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, has acted as a counter-balance to any major and visible opposition taking root publicly in Lebanon. Hezbollah commands a strong street presence in Lebanon and can easily mobilize large crowds in support of the embattled Syrian president. 

Instead, Syrian opposition activists feel more comfortable that their leadership remains in Turkey and abroad. They say Lebanon's past relations with Syria make it easy for Syrian intelligence and pro-Assad operatives to target them. Still, activists are discreetly using Lebanon as a base from which to supply and arm their comrades inside the country.

Even if the government in Lebanon has been reluctant to take sides in the conflict, it may not be long before the conflict forces Lebanon into a more direct course of action. 

Anthony Shadid, a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter who covered nearly two decades of Middle East conflict, including long stints at the Washington Post and the New York Times, died on Thursday, apparently of an asthma attack, while on an assignment in Syria.

Ayman Mohyeldin, an NBC News correspondent currently based in Cairo, Egypt, offers this appreciation of Shadid, a mentor, colleague and friend.  Prior to joining NBC News Mohyeldin was a Middle East a correspondent for Al Jazeera and CNN, covering events including the Iraq War, the Arab Spring in Egypt, and Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

CAIRO – To many, Anthony Shadid was a notable byline, a name that you knew would capture a story like no one else. His accolades and body of work speak volumes about his skills as a journalist.

But for me, it was as much about Anthony the person, who inspired by his example and came with a  professional and personal kindness possessed by no one else.

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Over the past decade of wars, sieges and revolutions in the Middle East, our paths crossed numerous times. It started in the spring of 2003 when I arrived in Baghdad as a journalist with very little international experience, let alone time in a war zone. I knew very few journalists there, but there was one I was determined to meet: Anthony Shadid.
 
The first time I spotted him, I quickly walked over to introduce myself. “Mr. Shadid, my name is Ayman.…”  “Call me Anthony,” he said, smiling. It was a simple exchange but very telling of the type of person Anthony was. 

In 2005, a few years after Baghdad, I was covering my first tumultuous Cairo protest when I bumped into Anthony again. It was my first time among thousands of  Egyptian demonstrators and I was flat-out nervous.

Anthony sensed it, called out my name and told me to stay close. He graciously and protectively let me shadow him as he navigated his way between protesters, police and thugs, never losing  focus on his reporting task.

In doing so, he took the time and care to show me that even in the most acute moments of tensions and work, there is always time for humanity. It was a profound moment of selfless collegiality in an industry often characterized by hyper-competitiveness.

Over the years, as Anthony’s successes grew and his work received more and more of the accolades it deserved, he never became inaccessible to those he mentored along the way, always offering us advice and wisdom. He raised the bar for journalists the world over, and particularly for Arab-American journalists.

We looked up to Anthony as the highest example of what hard work and humility achieve. He became an inspiration and role model for cadres of aspiring Arab-American journalists wanting to make a difference in their country and communities. He made it possible for us to tell our parents that we, too, wanted to be journalists, just like Anthony.  And he made it possible for us to believe that one day we, too, could work for the New York Times, the Washington Post and other major American media outlets.

A few days before his death, Anthony was featured in an article about Arab-American journalists. That evening, after reading the article, my dad called me in Egypt to talk about it. “I hope one day to see you like Anthony,” he said at the end of the conversation.

On his last trip to Egypt, just a few weeks ago, I missed the chance to see Anthony one last time. It is something I will always regret.

That’s what he meant to so many of us.

NYTimes Correspondent Anthony Shadid dies in Syria
NBC's Richard Engel: NYT reporter Anthony Shadid was 'absolutely brillant' 
Shadid's death highlights dangers of asthma

News Analysis

CAIRO – Tragedy. Conspiracy. Massacre.

However you decide to describe Wednesday's deadly melee at an Egyptian soccer game that left 74 dead, one thing is for certain. It is being described as a blemish on Egypt and Egyptians.

In merely a few hours, more Egyptians were killed than in any single day in Egypt's nascent revolution.

The incident cuts across much deeper issues in a country where soccer and politics intersect at all levels of society and social classes. Wednesday's violence highlights shortcomings in the country's sporting culture, free-speech psychology and politics. It exposes mistrust that defines the transforming relationship between the state's security and its citizens: failing to define each other’s responsibility to the other. And it sheds light on the country's past, while offering a glimpse into its democratic future, where officials are held to account and the public also must hold itself responsible for violating its own set of values and morals.

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Those responsible for the violence at Wednesday’s game were Egyptians. Period.

Now, they could have been instigated, motivated and, even more sinisterly, hired to carry out these attacks on each other.  But in the end, they were all fellow countrymen representing broader groups of society, whether they be pro-revolutionary, pro-military, remnants of the old regime or simply thugs. Today the country had to face up to that fact.

Culture of insults
I have been attending soccer games in Egypt since I was a little boy. I and the millions of other Egyptians who attend these games are always somewhat entertained by the verbal abuse leveled at officials, opposing teams' fans and their players. From derogatory chants to straight-up provocative curses, nothing is off limits at these games.

And although I did not attend the game between Al Ahly and Al Masry on Wednesday, the run-up to the game and the chants heard during the game itself reflect a culture in which insults, taunting and provocation are not the exception, but the norm.

Such a culture demeans the very sport. And in a country where tensions are already high, the notion that fans can demean each other along political lines reflects the growing fragmentation in Egypt's post-revolutionary transition. It was reported that Ahly fans repeatedly taunted the home crowds, unfurling insulting posters and accusing them of not supporting the populist revolution that "liberated the country.”

Your soccer team is political statement
At the forefront of sports and politics are the die-hard fans of prominent clubs like Al Ahly and Al Zamalek, known in Egypt as the Ultras. The very name Ultra is meant to connote the most extreme level of loyalty by the fans.

Egypt's sporting clubs reflect complex layers of the country's past and current power structure. Al Ahly was founded by staunchly anti-British republicans. Al Zamalek drew its support from the country's colonial British administrators and their monarchist allies. Even Egypt's security apparatuses field top-flight teams from the army, police, military industry and border guards.

Who you support makes a difference in Egypt. Why you support them matters even more. When teams reflect such historical and cultural differences, it’s not surprising to find tension and violence at sporting events. At a time when sport could be a healing and unifying factor in the country, it has emerged as divisive theater.

In recent weeks, the Ultras of both Al Ahly and Al Zamalek have made reconciliatory efforts to each other. But it’s a small drop in the bucket following years of deep animosity. It was up to the moral conscience of the storming fans to realize that they were committing murder.

In the absence of security or riot police and in the presence of instigators or saboteurs, where was the moral conscience of Egyptians at the stadium to realize that storming the field in celebration is one thing, committing murder with weapons is another? Have Egyptians become that immune to violence to no longer draw the line of distinction? Are they so easily manipulated to carry out such attacks by larger societal powers?

Ultras Ahly carry even more political baggage, because they were at the forefront of 18-day street protests against the Mubarak regime and the military council that inherited power after the revolution. The Ultras Ahly have drawn on their past years of battle-hardened stadium experience with riot police in their ongoing confrontations with the military and the security forces. That has drawn them admiration and support from pro-revolutionary movements in the country for sustaining pressure on the military rulers despite "revolution fatigue" in some corridors of the country. It has also drawn anger from parts of the country that see sustained street protests as undermining the country's stability, democratic transition and economic recovery.

Police complicit or just ill-prepared?
But unlike in previous soccer-related violence, Wednesday's incident had a suspiciously high death toll. Despite the presence of security and riot police in visibly large numbers, the rampaging crowds were pretty much unhindered as they stormed the field. This has led many to question whether a sinister plot could have been tacitly in place to allow for such violence.

Many speculate the military council and its backers gain by exploiting such acts of “chaos.” Others simply say that this is an example of the incompetence of poorly trained security forces that are incapable of dealing with large crowds without brute force.

I wonder what the public reaction would have been if police had used overwhelming force to subdue the on charging crowds and prevent the fan-on-fan violence. There surely would have been public outcry against the security forces for suppressing rowdy crowds.

It’s a lose-lose situation for the security forces. Act and suppress the crowds, and the police will be condemned for cracking down on what would surely have been described as a "post-victory celebration.” Stand by and do nothing and they are accused of complicity in the killing of fans. Therein lays the dilemma that Egypt's security apparatus faces: a crisis of confidence and credibility. But above all just poor technical capabilities in crowd control.

Even when the state is expected to uphold its responsibilities and preserve law and order it is handicapped by the lack of trust the general public has in those forces. Perhaps the police were ordered to avoid direct confrontation to precisely avoid the risk of injuring disorderly fan. Is there a solution where by the police are allowed to use force to subdue disorderly conduct that is disruptive to the public good. When and who gets to make the distinction between civil disobedience and free-speech protests where police are expected to keep a distance; and disorderly conduct where police must preserve law and order?

New political theater
Enter Egypt's new parliament. This trying experience has been baptism by fire for the new parliamentarians who spent the better part of Thursday debating what they as a body can and should do. As the only democratically elected state institution in the country, it has been among the most responsive so far.

Members of parliament took to the airwaves on Wednesday evening condemning those responsible, while vowing to hold them responsible. On Thursday the entire body took up the matter. They summoned the prime minister and five other ministers to an emergency session to discuss the matter. Feeling the heat, the prime minister walked into the People's Assembly by saying the governor of Port Said had resigned and top security officials were suspended

Parliamentarians did not hold back their criticism of the government's handling of the situation – they put the blame squarely on the military, its prime minister and the security forces for failing to preserve the public order. The proceedings happened live on television as millions of Egyptians and Arabs across the world watched hours of uninterrupted debate.

In the end, it was decided that the minister of interior will be investigated for his handling of the situation, many called for his sacking.

It was an example of a budding democratic body attempting to hold officials accountable. In the long run, it may prove to be fruitless, and the parliament may lose the zeal it demonstrated Thursday, but it does for now meet the immediate expectations of many citizens. How far the parliament can push its accountability will be tested in the coming days and weeks.

But the violence in Wednesday's tragedy also teaches one more important lesson, as one Egyptian Ahly fan told me, "We as a country must learn to share the blame for what we do, not just simply get used to assigning blame.”

Ayman Mohyeldin is an NBC News Correspondent currently based in Cairo, Egypt. He was born in Cairo and lived there until age 5. He spent a lot of timing visiting family there as a young adult and has been working on and off in Egypt since 2005 for CNN, Al Jazeera and now NBC News. He has attended both club and national soccer team games since he was a child.

CAIRO -- With fighting now encroaching the suburbs of the Syrian capital, the conflict is entering into a new dimension for the first time in nearly 10 months.

The Syrian military has regained control of the Damascus suburbs after rebel fighters over the weekend made strong advances around the capital, threatening the grip of President Bashar al Assad. The Syrian News Agency say security forces attacked "terrorist hideouts" in the Damascus countryside -- a loosely veiled acknowledgment that the fighting is now on the doorsteps of the capital.

But the attention on the capital and its outlying areas is a sign that rebel fighters who are part of the loosely knit Free Syrian Army have grown more brazen in their attacks as they go on the offensive against government troops. The fighting near the capital comes as a spike in violence has left several hundreds of people dead over the past five days. Both the government and opposition activists continue to blame each other for the violence that only seems to be escalating.

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Syrian opposition fighters say the spike in violence is a sign that Assad's regime is desperate and launching whatever counter offensive it can to crush a stubborn uprising against his rule. Syrian analysts say with the international community convening at the U.N. to discuss the Syria crisis, the regime sees a window of opportunity in which it can resort to violence before pressure and possibly action is ratcheted up against Damascus rendering it impossible to continue on the same path.

An Arab League monitoring mission tasked with making sure Syria complies with an Arab peace plan to end the violence has been suspended. Syrian opposition says this has given Assad the greenlight to crack down in the blackout of media and monitors.

Read more: Gunfire 'everywhere': Street battles rage in Damascus suburbs

Some Syrians say the Free Syrian Army has grown in strength as more supporters and defectors join its ranks buoyed by its will to fight on despite being overpowered and outnumbered. As their numbers grow, the Syrian military is increasingly fatigued and weary, according to opposition members. Time is the regime's enemy, they say.

But Syria's fault lines are now spilling over into the international arena. U.N. Security Council members are convening in New York on Tuesday to discuss endorsing an Arab League plan that calls on Assad to hand over power immediately. The biggest objection so far has come from Russia which sees such attempts as interference in Syrian domestic affairs.

Russia instead has gone on its own diplomatic offensive, offering to host negotiations between the Assad government and all of the opposition forces. But a member of the Syrian opposition tells me Russia's efforts are only so that it does not appear as an obstacle to the will of the international community without offering an alternative. The Syrian opposition will not enter into any dialogue with Assad's government without preconditions. At the top of its list of demands? The President must agree to step down from power immediately.

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They are scenes reminiscent of Egypt's 18-day revolution that toppled the 30-year rule of Hosni Mubarak.

Men and women, young and old, Muslim and Christian, rich and poor, secular and conservative … all back in the symbolic heart of Egypt’s revolution, Tahrir Square. They are also in cities all across the country.

But the unity seen during Egypt's revolution in 2011 has been replaced by widening differences over where the country stands one year later.

The difference revolves around the transition to democracy. Is it on the right path? Led by the right people? Genuine or simply cosmetic? Actions versus promises. Accomplishments versus rhetoric.

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Wednesday marked the one-year anniversary of the beginning of the uprising that ousted Mubarak.

Some gathered in the square to celebrate that revolution. They said the past year had been one of transformation. They cited a newly elected lower house of parliament, new individual freedoms and an explosion of political parties running the gamut.

Those gathered Wednesday celebrated the accomplishments of the revolution. Those accomplishments cannot simply be dismissed. The pace of reform may be slow, but change has been tangible.

Those here commemorating the revolution argued change has been cosmetic. One regime has simply been replaced by another.

"We have changed the driver in the car, but you have not changed the car or its direction," one protester told me. "Only when the direction of the car changes will the revolution be considered successful," he added.

Related: Obama wants to boost Egypt aid quickly

Those commemorating the revolution said the anniversary should serve as a reminder of what Egyptians can accomplish when they are united. The past year has not lived up to its potential. They cited thousands of civilians in military trials as evidence that the ruling military council -- all appointed by Mubarak coincidentally -- has resorted to the same draconian measures as its predecessor. They said that in the past year, not a single senior officer of the internal security forces or minister has been convicted in the killings of around 800 protesters. So for them, Wednesday was about renewing demonstrations against the ruling military council.

The military council said it's holding the ship steady on the course to democracy. And while it has changed the timetable to elections a few times, it has done so only when events on the ground rapidly deteriorated and protests flared up. On one hand that showed it had been responsive to public sentiments and street protests; but on the other hand, it continued to act unilaterally when it came to fundamental issues concerning the process of reform. It retained exclusive power over the security services and the judiciary. It has refused to delegate powers and authority to the military-appointed prime minister or the newly elected lower house of parliament. At the same time, the military has issued a declaration of constitutional principles that many interpret as an attempt to retain powers after a new government is directly elected.

Related: Huge crowd in Cairo

And of course… there are the new democratic realities that have emerged in post-revolution Egypt. New political parties, but not necessarily new political voices. The loudest so far has been that of the Muslim Brotherhood and the ultra-conservative Salafist movement. Between the two of them, they overwhelmingly won the majority of seats in parliament. Will their mandate from the people be seen as a direct order to challenge the military? Some argue the Islamists are content with the democratic process undertaken by the military because it has paved their way to power. They fear the two have cut backroom deals. The military will move the democratic process at a pace and under conditions favorable to Islamist parties at the expense of the lesser and weaker secular and liberal forces. In exchange, the Islamists will not mobilize their massive street support against the military or hold them accountable for past misdoings going forward.

So whether Egyptians celebrate, commemorate or reinvigorate their January 25 Revolution, one thing is for certain, it has been a remarkable year in the history of this country.

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Editor's note: Cairo-based NBC News correspondent Ayman Mohyeldin is reporting from inside Syria this week. Follow his updates on Twitter @Aymanm

Inside Syria, Day4

DAMASCUS, Syria -- It's part concert, part celebration, but ALL for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

That's what it was like attending a pro-government rally Friday in Damascus.

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Here, there is no mistaking whom this crowd supports. His picture is everywhere, even draped on the side of a multistory building that belongs to the Central Bank.

There are some glaring observations that any one who comes to these rallies notices. First, they are extremely safe. Police block streets, volunteers usher people to the opens spaces, there is a nice stage and sound system set up. Flags and the president’s pictures are plentiful. The rallies are carried on State TV.

This is in stark contrast to the demonstrations against the president's rule. Those protests are often in tight side streets away from the eyes of security forces that have used force to disperse them. No high-quality cameras beaming the images on TV, the vast majority of anti-government protests are captured on amateur footage and shared via social media websites.

There was something rather disturbing I noticed during Friday's pro-government rally. Even my Syrian friends who were with me thought it was extremely distasteful and alarming.

People were openly professing their support for the "SHABIHA" - armed thugs that critics and activists say are used by the Assad regime, along with the military, to put down the nationwide uprising violently.

Related story: US considers shutting embassy in Syria

It's very difficult to gauge the support the president has across the country, but there is no doubt that here in the capital, there are still those who will come out to show their support for the leader. But what is even harder to tell is whether the president and his government enjoy support for their performance or fear out of the alternative that would emerge in a post-Assad era should he leave power.

Many people feel as the conflict drags on and becomes increasingly militarized, the wounds of a full-blown war between the government and armed insurgents would destroy Syria and that fear has paralyzed some into supporting the president -- for the time being.

But I haven't seen too many pro-Assad rallies in the rest of the country and certainly not as big or as frequent as the ones held in Damascus.

Earlier in the day, we had requested permission to go to a square in another part of the city where anti-government protests are held. Surprisingly, the ministry of information granted us the permits relatively easily. Keep in mind we have been waiting for 4 days to get permission to film long lines at petrol stations.

See all of Ayman Mohyeldin's Inside Syria reports

When we arrived there was no rally … just plain-clothes security and pro-Assad supporters who coincidently showed up when our camera appeared.

Foreign journalists visiting Syria have been banned from traveling to areas where anti-government sentiment runs high. The government says it's for our own safety. Critics say it's to control the message. So because we can't get to them, activists are sending amateur footage out to the world showing what they say are atrocities the government is committing against civilians.

A reminder that in Syria's uprising, there now is a battle raging for the hearts and minds of viewers as well.

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Editor's note: Cairo-based NBC News correspondent Ayman Mohyeldin is reporting from Syria this week. Follow his updates on Twitter @Aymanm

Update at 5:20 p.m. ET Wednesday: Arab League monitor in Idleb described monitoring mission there as terrifying, repeatedly coming under attack and receiving threats.

Update at 8:18 a.m. ET Wednesday: Police in #damascus have let us go after about an hour and deleting our video of long petrol lines #syria

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 Update at 8 a.m. ET Wednesday: Ayman Mohyeldin says in a message on Twitter that he was "Taken to police station in #damascus. Despite having permits we were forced to delete video of people waiting in line."

Published at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday: Inside Syria, Day 1

DAMASCUS -- To say that Damascus suffers from a cult of personality is an understatement. Arriving in Damascus airport, there is no mistaking who runs Syria: "Doctor Bashar al-Assad."

In the short walk from the airplane to the car, I counted more than 200 posters plastered on the walls, columns, doors and pretty much everywhere my eye turned. All I could see were pictures carrying the image of Assad. From planting olive trees to donning full military dress, Assad is everywhere. Even customs officials processing our paperwork were humming pro-Assad songs.

A few hours later, at a dinner with old and new friends in a Damascus restaurant, I am told it's not just the president's image that is ubiquitous, it’s the entire security apparatus that's keeping a watchful eye on what is happening in Damascus. "Be careful what you say and when you say it," a friend tells me. "Never speak freely with a taxi driver or start a random conversation about what is going on," I am advised.

But despite the warning, there is a certain ease by which the current crisis comes to the surface of any discussion. Criticism of the government is rampant at one restaurant where conversations flow from table to table. An occasional silence interrupts the chats as diners peek over the shoulders to ensure no one is paying attention too closely. "It's OK, don’t worry, the regime has bigger problems right now than to worry what is being said on every table. We know everyone here," my friend says, nudging me to keep on eating.

Over the course of the next several hours, I hear about "Syria's uprising" from those living it daily, including its pitfalls, its weaknesses, its strengths. Lessons learned and gains made. In the background, a TV plays Arab music songs, and then a red ticker on the screen flashes a breaking news bulletin. In unison, heads across the restaurant turn: An explosion has been reported in the Damascus neighborhood of Nahr El Aisha. People turn back to their meals.

Damascus is a city on edge. There is an uneasy nervousness in the city. Yes, shops are open, and restaurants and cafés bustle with patrons. But that’s up to a certain time, and for those who know Damascus, it’s a few hours less than normal, and a few hours less than what it was just a few months ago. There is an unofficial curfew, imposed by residents who are weary of a different city after dark. There are parts of the city where the risks of travel are too dangerous at night. As we drive around one roundabout in the city, we veer on to a side street. "This side of the circle is safe. If you drive a kilometer in the other side, there are tensions between the residents and the security," my friend tells me.

The government says "armed gangs" have inched closer to the capital, frequently attacking security checkpoints at night. Several attacks have already happened in the heart of the capital. And even government employees concede certain routes in and out of the city have become too dangerous to traverse. Anti-government activists say momentum is on their side as pressure mounts on the government, with political and military defections increasing. When night falls, security forces crack down on neighborhoods close to the capital where anti-government sentiment runs high.

Along one of the capital's main streets, one side of the street is well lit. The other is dark. Local residents tell me power outages are becoming more frequent across the city. There are rolling blackouts and increasing shortages of fuel and gas. Factories are shutting down, exports are halting. The value of the Syrian currency is plummeting and inflation is skyrocketing as a result of international and Arab sanctions that are aimed at punishing Assad's government. But the sanctions are clearly taking a toll on the daily lives of Syrians.

But their daily lives go on, it seems for now, as routine as they can be in the middle of a 10-month uprising against the rule of the man seen everywhere in Damascus.

ANALYSIS

CAIRO – It was a speech that was long in form, but short on new substance.

For the first time since June, Syria's President Bashar al-Assad spoke publicly, addressing a crowd at Damascus University in a nearly two-hour speech that was carried live on state television and around the Arab world. 

But if Assad is under increasing international pressure and isolation, he certainly did not show it.

In fact, he was defiant as ever, seemingly casual at times but confident with his government’s course of action. At one point, he dismissed calls to step down, saying that while he never sought power, he would also not shy away from his responsibilities as the country's ruler.

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The speech followed the same talking points the Syrian regime has been consistently delivering: There will be no let-up in the crackdown on what Syria describes as terrorists who are undermining the state and its sovereignty. Foreign hands are at work to divide Syria and sow sedition in an attempt to conquer the broader region.

But perhaps the strongest words from the president’s speech were targeted at the Arab League, the pan-Arab regional body, which has condemned Syria and sanctioned it for its violet crackdown on protesters that the U.N. estimates has killed 5,000 people since March 2011.

He even said the Arab League should be called the “Foreign League.” With that comment he seemed to be playing to his audience, if there is one thing that irks people across the Arab world uniformly it’s the notion of foreign powers intervening in their domestic affairs.

Tough spot for Arab League
Analysts say the Arab League is in a difficult position. Its 165-person observer mission in Syria is tasked with making sure Damascus complies with an agreement aimed at ending the violence. The mission has drawn criticism for its work and its composition – including the fact that a Sudanese general who has been accused of war crimes himself is in charge of the mission.

The observer mission is expected to submit its full report on Jan. 19 in Cairo. Russia says the mission is helping stabilize the country, but according to activists inside and outside Syria, the death toll continues to rise, leading many in the opposition to worry the mission could simply serve as a political cover for the continued crackdown. 

Syrian opposition groups say the Syrian government is limiting the mobility and ability of the mission to freely see the facts on the ground. A group of Arab League observers were reportedly attacked by “unknown protesters” in the northern city of Latakia on Monday.

Opposition groups say they want the Arab League to refer the Syria crisis to the United Nations Security Council. But doing so may prove to be a double edge sword for the Arab body which does not want to appear as having given the green light for foreign action in yet another Arab country.

The fear among some within the Arab League, according to sources I have spoken to, is that such a move would pave the way for international intervention in Syria that could ultimately take the shape of military action. However, Western powers have expressed their unwillingness for any foreign military action in Syria like that in Libya.

The Arab League was criticized when it referred Libya to the United Nations. That move ultimately led to NATO military intervention that helped topple the Gadhafi regime.

The current Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby previously told me the Libya decision was a mistake (he was not the Secretary General at the time of that vote) and he did not want it repeated under his leadership.

The Syrian opposition has concluded that the Arab League is divided and weak to take any further actions to stop the bloodshed. But they are divided as well.

The opposition movements both inside and outside of Syria have been criticized for their inability to build a cohesive decision-making opposition body that could allay the fears of regional countries and also meet  the immediate demands of the Syrian people in a possible post-Assad Syria.

‘A challenge of biblical proportions’
The larger international community isn’t stepping up to fill the leadership void, either. The international community is reluctant to get involved in Syria as it did in Libya. The regional fallout could be greater following any intervention in Syria than it was for Libya.

Security experts say Syria's military capabilities are far greater than Libya's and that poses a whole host of challenges. 

“There are questions as to whether the process could be repeated, for example, in Syria,” said Jeremy Binnie, a senior analyst at IHS Jane’s, the defense and security intelligence provider. “Russia and China have expressed concerns that the U.N. resolution to protect Libyan civilians was loosely interpreted, the allies were up against inferior air defenses and the potential geo-strategic ramifications of the intervention were comparatively limited.”

Binnie explained how the situation in Syria differs from Libya. “The Syrian regime would be a significantly harder to topple and the fallout potentially far more serious, especially given the country’s arsenal of chemical weapons. Libya’s air defenses were a push over by comparison. Syria would be a challenge of biblical proportions compared with Libya.”

Hanging in the balance
For now, Assad says his government will press ahead with reforms while pushing for wider political participation from opposition groups. The president boldly promised that a new constitution would be put up for referendum later this spring and new elections would be held shortly after, a timetable that analysts say is unlikely to produce genuine reform.

Opposition groups have dismissed these as half-hearted measures and duplicitous. But with a divided opposition, timid Arab neighbors and an international community that lacks consensus on what to do, Assad has found a balance in which he continues to remain in power.

 

 

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By Ayman Mohyeldin, NBC News
CAIRO -- The trial of former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, his two sons, the former minister of interior and six senior security officials resumed in a Cairo court on Wednesday after nearly a three-month recess.

Egyptian TV showed 83-year-old Mubarak, covered by a green blanket and lying on a hospital gurney as he was brought from a helicopter and taken to an ambulance for the short ride to the courthouse.

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The men are all facing murder charges for ordering security forces to kill demonstrators while trying to suppress an 18-day popular uprising against the 30-year rule of Mubarak that began on Jan 25, 2011.

The trial was in recess for close to three months because a separate petition had been filed to replace the presiding judge. That petition was not granted and the same judge will continue to preside over the trial.

On Wednesday, defense attorneys asked the judge to call senior members of the intelligence services and other branches of Egypt's Armed Forces who were serving during the revolution and since then to testify.

The defense is arguing the security forces were acting within the law to contain the uprising but were never given specific orders to "kill" demonstrators.

So far, the most critical testimony of the trial has come from Field Marshall Mohammed Hussien Tantawi, the Commander of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the ruling military council. His testimony has been sealed for security reasons. The defense has also requested the judge hear the testimony of SCAF second-in-command Field Marshall Sami Annan, Chief-of-Staff of the Armed Forces.

The defense believes the two men and other senior officials will testify that they were never given orders by the former president to kill protestors.

The trial has been adjourned until Monday, Jan. 2.

Journalist are allowed to attend the trial under very strict rules as to what they can publish. Egyptian State TV, which was originally allowed to broadcast the trial, has since been barred from broadcasting the trial live.

Revolutionary groups have had a long-standing demand that Mubarak and his aides stand trial for the killing of protestors. The delay in the start of trial and it's lack of transparency has led many to criticize the SCAF that it was never serious about bringing the former president to justice.

DOKKI, EGYPT – Mona Al Shabrawy came into her daughter’s room and eagerly woke her up Wednesday morning. The gynecologist was getting ready to go vote in the second round of Egypt’s parliamentary elections, but there was one problem: She didn’t know who to vote for; her instinct was to turn to her daughter, Aisha, for advice.

Aisha Al Shabrawy has been closely following the evolving political landscape in post-revolution Egypt. Party pamphlets and candidate manifestos litter the family home. Aisha took to the streets during Egypt’s revolution in February of year, and since then, she has been to many other protests in Tahrir Square.

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She has her finger on the pulse on the debate raging across Egypt over the role of religion in politics, which grew more intense after the first round of elections that saw Islamist parties decimate their liberal counterparts and win close to 60 percent of the seats. Aisha didn’t hold back when suggesting to her mother how she should make her choice.

“I told her to vote for the Kotla,” Aisha said. “Kotla” is the Arabic word for “Bloc” – it is short form among Egyptians these days referring to the liberal leaning bloc of political parties running together.

A few hours later, Aisha cast her own ballot at a polling station in Agouza, a town just outside Cairo, for the first time in her life. The second round of parliamentary elections were held Wednesday and Thursday in nine out of Egypt’s 27 provinces.  She voted for the liberals at a women-only polling station.

It was the culmination of a personal journey for this 31-year-old aspiring jewelry designer that highlights how identity is shaping Egypt’s new political landscape more so than policy. And at a time when results from Egypt’s first round of elections suggest the country as a whole is shifting toward conservative Islamist parties, Aisha is moving in the opposite direction.

Story of an ex-Islamist
At the age of 18, Aisha noticed she was increasingly at odds with what she considered to be the materialistic and superficial society around her. Aisha began to find comfort and solace among her more religious friends and ultimately was drawn to the appeal of Islamic preachers like Amr Khaled, who like many other Muslim preachers has amassed a huge online and public following.

She began attending religious lessons and meetings that were geared toward the young. “They knew about the young generation, they were very practical and pragmatic in appealing to the youth,” she said.

By the age of 21, Aisha had embraced the ultra-conservative teachings of the Salafi movement. Many Salafis say their “interpretation of Islam is the correct interpretation.” They believe in “the righteous ancestors” of Islam, or as known in Arabic, the “Salaf el Salah.”

For the next two years, she was a self-described Salafist, a pious individual who loved wearing the Niqab – or full-face veil. She appreciated the sense of community enjoyed by Salafists and their straightforwardness about their beliefs and viewpoints.

But Aisha also began to see rigidity in how Salafis practiced their religion. She felt the Salafis were putting too much of an emphasis on the external image and behavior that should be projected by its followers, rather than on the spiritual journey inside. They would use guilt and fear to persuade or dissuade their followers from certain actions. It was all beginning to take its toll on how Aisha viewed herself.

Nearly five years after beginning to embrace Salafist ideology and practices, she began to withdraw from the movement and its associations, opting instead to focus on her own spiritual journey. In 2003, she stopped wearing the niqab and today considers herself liberal.

Related link: Accusations fly in second round of Egypt vote

Explosion of political parties
With the fall of the Mubarak regime and the explosion of political parties, Aisha is figuring out where she fits into the political scene. Many Egyptians expected the emergence of Islamist parties after Mubarak’s ouster. In this conservative society that is often considered the birthplace of political Islamist movements in other parts of the world, Egyptians had grown accustomed to the presence of socio-religious political organizations.

One movement for close to 80 years has dominated political Islam in Egypt: the Muslim Brotherhood. And after the first round of parliamentary voting two weeks ago, its political wing, known as the Freedom and Justice Party, ascended to the top of the political ladder.

But the election result that surprised many Egyptians was the strong performance of the even-more-conservative parties known as Salafists. These parties managed to garner close to a quarter of the seats in the first round, which took place in the country’s more urban areas, like Cairo.

Now, as the voting moves into more rural areas with lower incomes, Salafist (and other Islamist) parties are expected to do just as well, if not better. In poor areas across Egypt, the state for years has failed to provide adequate social services like hospitals, clinics, schools and jobs. These shortcomings were often filled by socio-religious organizations through charitable work.

These very same charitable organizations are now part of larger political movements and are reaping the political benefits of years of service to the previously neglected masses.

Identity politics
At a polling station in Giza, one woman gave her take on Egypt’s elections. “We are not voting based on policies and solutions to our problems. I don’t think any of these candidates actually have solutions to our daily problems. I don’t know who any of them are, to be honest, but I know what they represent.”

In that sense, many believe Egypt’s elections are as much about identity as they are about politics.

“This vote should not be called elections, these elections should be called a census,” said Mohsen, a 42-year-old computer engineer, walking out of a polling station after voting in Dokki,  a town in Giza governorate just outside of Cairo. “Based on the results we will know the religious and political orientation of our society, not the policies we need,” he added.

The notion that many Egyptians are voting based on their identity in elections, which so far have been considered mostly free and fair, after decades of rigged elections and politics dominated by single party rule, may not be a surprise to many Egyptians. But some voters are concerned about what effect identity politics could have on future policies.

Omar Hikal, a businessman also voting in Dokki, was a first-timer at the polls. “I don’t believe religion should be the basis for political decisions.”

And that’s what has many liberals concerned about the first round of voting. “Egypt is not an Islamic country, it should be a Muslim country,” Hikal said. Liberals like Hikal don’t want Egypt’s largely Muslim identity to become the basis for an Islamic state.

The country’s military rulers have already suggested that the body drafting the constitution has to reflect Egyptian diversity, something that angered Islamist parties and raised worries about a looming political confrontation between an Islamist-dominated parliament and the generals.

While the Freedom and Justice Party has tried to allay fears by assuring the public that social restrictions do not top the party’s legislative agenda, not everyone is convinced.

Aisha, the one-time Salafist turned liberal, said, “the Muslim Brotherhood may not be lying, but they don’t always say the whole truth.”

To some, like Aisha and Hikal, both liberal voters, at least the Salafists are “straight shooters.”
“If they want women to stay at home and wear veils, they will tell everyone that’s what we want to do,” said Hikal.
Others don’t see it that way.

“We had the liberals like Mubarak and his children for 30 years and look what he did to the country,” said Mohammed, a 47-year-old barber who voted for the Salafist Nour Party.

Associating liberals with the era of Mubarak’s rule is a common sentiment among many conservatives who believe the pro-American and pro-Israeli leader was emblematic of liberal ideology of trying to keep religion and religious parties marginalized from politics by force.

Extremist or an inspiration?
For Aisha, the sudden emergence of Salafist parties is not a surprise. But their transformation into a political movement is new and will be tested in an expanding political environment. 

Today, Aisha believes Salafis and other parties have a place in the new Egypt, so long as they don’t force their ideology onto others, something she warns Salafists do subtly well.

Since leaving behind Salafist ideology, Aisha has been contemplating turning her personal diary into a book.

A few weeks before the elections, she posted on her Facebook page what she thought would be a fitting title for her story, “Diaries of an Ex-extremist.” A few hours later, one of her Salafi friends replied… “You were never an extremist, you were an inspiration.”