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China grapples with new world role

Posted: Tuesday, March 31, 2009 11:44 AM
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BEIJING – As President Hu Jintao heads for the G-20 Summit in London to tackle the global financial crisis, Chinese media is abuzz with clashing views about how the Middle Kingdom should manage its increasingly central role in world affairs.

With their economy still expanding and banks still awash with cash – and the government holding $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves, more than half of which is invested in debt that supports the United States – the Chinese are generally taking pride in their unprecedented new clout in world affairs.

Image: The book, “Unhappy China – The Great Time, Grand Vision and Our Challenges.”
Sarah Jiang / NBC News
The new book stirring up nationalist sentiments in China: “Unhappy China – The Great Time, Grand Vision and Our Challenges.”

"Superior system advantage" is how Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan explains China’s relative strength. He recently called for an end to the dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, prompting concerns about China’s assertive economic nationalism.

And nationalism is proving to be the sensitive issue that both Chinese leaders and the public have to grapple with as they try to define the nation’s new "great power" status.

‘China is unhappy’
The latest salvo on the nationalism debate was fired by a group of scholars who argue in a best-selling new book that the current financial crisis is proof of the corruption of the world capitalist system led by the United States – and that it’s time for China to take the lead.

The group put out a collection of essays called "Unhappy China – The Great Time, Grand Vision and Our Challenges" in order to "spur, stimulate and wake up" China’s intellectuals.

The book declares: "With Chinese national strength growing at an unprecedented rate, China should stop self-debasing and come to recognize that it has the power to lead the world, and the necessity to break away from Western influence. We are most qualified to lead this world; Westerners should be second."

Conceived by the authors last October as the global financial crisis began to sweep America and the world, the book was published in early March and is selling for $4.40 a copy. Its first printing sold out and the second printing of 270,000 is reportedly selling fast as well.

No to 'Chimerica'
According to Huang Jisu, one of the book’s authors and a sociologist, the idea is for China to take the lead in reforming the world and not to be the new leader of the old system.

"In that sense, we also reject the idea of ‘Chimerica’ or  China and America jointly leading the world, if it means China merely sharing in the spoils of the current global system," Huang said, dismissing recent suggestions by analysts that the success of the G-20 Summit will hinge on G2, the partnership between the United States and China.

"We are for changing the world system, not for China becoming the new hegemon or new Big Brother of the world," he said.

The book itself has faced a barrage of criticism from bloggers and academics, who accuse the authors of cashing in on "extreme nationalism" that is embarrassing and unconstructive.

"Actually, much of the criticism is based on misunderstanding," said Huang, citing one survey by Sina.com, a popular Chinese web site, showing that a majority of Chinese support the main points of the book.

While the book’s thesis contradicts China’s official diplomacy that seeks cooperation and not contention in tackling the global crisis, Huang said they have not encountered any government interference or criticism. "In that sense, we have room for freedom of expression in China," he said.

China ‘not ready to lead’
But one critic of the book, Hu Xingdou, an economics professor at the Beijing Institute of Technology, called its publication a sign of the "ideological chaos" in China.

"Extreme nationalism is not the answer, and China is not ready to lead," declared Hu, while acknowledging the authors’ right to express their opinion.

"As for Chimerica, China cannot possibly exercise leadership shoulder to shoulder with the United States simply because China is not qualified," he said, arguing that China’s "soft power" is far from adequate.

"China’s value systems – its ideological, political and cultural systems – are not yet part of the global mainstream," he explained.

Hu dismissed China’s prosperity as deceptive. "Essentially, we remain as the peasant laborer of the world, relying on cheap labor and cheap products."

He likened the current situation to the 1930’s Great Depression when Stalin’s Soviet Union seemed to have the upper hand over the ailing Western economies. "I hope China will learn the lesson and not take the road taken by Stalin," he said.

"Only by undertaking political reform and democracy can China qualify to lead the world, and also avert domestic crisis and insure long-term prosperity," he said.

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As long as China's wealth is based on intellectual property theft, fixing the value of its currency, a "we can do anything because we're a developing country" and a "don't criticize us, because you are not perfect too" attitude toward international law, and a "don't criticize us, and a radical self-worship of everything "Chinese" as opposed to the higher ideals that all humans share and aspire to, it will not, as a nation, offer any leadership worth following.  The bottom line is you don't run around crying about how you should be the leader, or by complaining about someone else who's leading.  You lead by example and with grace.
I guess nothing China does will ever please the white guys.  I doubt any Chinese person loses one second of sleep over it.  And what is this world leadership nonsense.  There's enough to do in good old China not to want to take on the thankless task of bullying other peoples.  If it makes good policy China provides full project aid to poor friendly countries, complete the projects, with no political strings attached.
Stop buying Happy Meals with Hamburgler action figures and their economy dries up.
anybody who says to stop buying chinese good and stuff along those lines are not very smart at all.  First of all, it is a global economy now.  Everybody is feeling the effects of the economic crisis.  Second, economics follows a general pattern.  It rises and falls no matter what.  The only difference is is that we have become more involved in how we regulate the economy.  China is not ready to lead.  Also China like the critic said, is creating only small things in large amounts of course.  I would rather create nano-chips and things along those lines rather than some plastic toys.  Yes the economy is falling right now, but it will rise again.  There is much more you can write, but whatever
China would require that the rest of the world respect them and wish to emulate them.  Currently, neither holds true.  The majority of the modern world has little in common with China.  The only thing that they have been able to do is capitalize on our addiction to spending and acquiring thing.  This is beginning to wane and they are becoming desperate. Hence, the propaganda books and stance. That is a scary thing.
 We must understand that current the United States of America financial crisis was undertaken or is left over from Mr. bush administration.

The system let by current administration of the United States will not lead us or world into the corruption of world system. I am not a Democrat or Republican yet I have a confidence in president Obama administration to bring us back to right track.

It is the sensitive issue for both Chinese leader and public regarding China's nationalism of new great power matter.

China will not take lead in central world stage, but nevertheless, it will work closely with Prsident Obama administration to stabilize the current world financial crisis.

The real question to the United States is how much can China trust and count on America as a reliable partner. President Obama must be aware that China had been torn apart and brutally occupied as well as atrocity done by then superpower of Britain, France, and Japan. It is unrealistic to expect China not to defend its own sovereignty, to ignore its history or to be treated as a second tier entity at another country's beckon and call like a bad habit left over from the colonial era. Any unjustified event without substantially justified with reasonable basis in fact which will be interpreted by China as an aggressive act.

Again, China will and must be evolved its legal and political systems to meet the needs of its own people and global partners.
I don't think Chine will become the leader of the world, even it has $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves. Nothing for 1.3B people. Most of them are still very poor now. China used its cheapeat labor and lots of natural resources to create wealth for this world, and make air and soil polluted (it will cost lots money in the future). As the professor said, its polical system is the mainstream.  
Chinese urge to lead the world financials is a mere choice of words are aimed as a marketing gig for the rise of dragon and spin a positive influence on the general population of other countries.  China does not have powerful agencies to oversea the Financial system.  I'm sure you agree that many chinese companies book cannot even be valued at face.  It's all a sham.  Under the hood, the government is propping up many of these firms.  Sure, they hold the largest US treasuries.  That doesn't make your system fool-proof.  Timeline - China has risen in the last decade....hardly enough time to develop tried and tested financial system to lead the world.  
keep shopping at wal-mart and wonder why china is gaining ground and we as Americans are loosing our jobs?
Americans need to stop thinking we are number one.
we are not anymore.
Yeah, they've got positive growth, but keep in mind that China's internal security depends on constant, massive growth - indeed China is dependent on the US and Europe - not the other way around. The more US families save and the less imported garbage they buy the more pressure gets put on China's leaders.

It looks as if China is trying to use nationalism (condoning unofficially what they refuse to endorse openly) as a way to fend off increasing dissatisfaction with the Chinese government by ordinary Chinese.

Beijing is nothing - most of the country lives under corrupt kleptocrats out in the countryside. Rising unemployment and massive dissatisfaction with corrupt profiteering officials is causing China's leaders to worry about another revolution (oh yeah, sorry, "counter-revolution").

So expect to see more bluster from the leadership and "intellectuals."  The louder they yell the weaker they are.

In response to Micheal....

While those who have been to China may not be experts, they've at least had boots on the ground and have seen what's going on there.  If you've been there, you know that the average Chinese person is far less well off than the average American and far less hard working.  That's not to say that there aren't well-off and hard working people there...we're talking about averages here.  I've had great experiences there dealing with the Chinese...and some not so great as well.  

The Chinese are building and developing at a rate the world has never seen before, and this is being done to create jobs.  Buying their goods are what makes this possible.  If they don't have double digit growth, they can't employ all of their new graduates.  They depend on the US and the rest of the world to buy their cheap stuff.  If that dries up, so does their prosperity.  

And the reason they buy so much US dept is to keep their currency stable.  
they told me in grade school i would be speaking japanese before long.  well im still speaking english and japan doesnt own the world.
someone can always build it cheaper so watch out china.
If they want to try and take it, let them. It will not be given to them easily.
THE fundamental difference between the chinese and americans is that, where the americans believe there is absolutely nothing they can learn from the chinese and the chinese have everything to learn from the americans; the chinese believe there are some things they can learn from the americans and vice-versa.

This is the reason why china has seen and will continue to see prosperity now and into the future and also why America's end is near.  The first rule to obtaining true wisdom is to first realize that you yourself are nothing more than but a fool.  This simply does not exist in the chauvinism of american society.
China has done what they needed to do to get to the top of the economic heap. Most of their methods have been morally reprehensible but, still, their they are. Societies, like people, make choices in their conduct. It is a sad commentary on our world when this type of country is rewarded with "number one" status....but their they are. It's bad enough they own all the dollars and euros. I pray that does not eventually translate into all the tanks and guns.
Apparently most americans are to stupid to understand what it is they are reading.  The chinese are not seeking to become leaders, they are only looking to change the current system to make it more equitable for all.

"We are for changing the world system, not for China becoming the new hegemon or new Big Brother of the world,"  --- quoted from the article above.
It's amazing to see free speech proliferate throughout the various nations of the world. I can only pray that it continues.  Whatever system is chosen will have to mesh with the current values of the people it governs. The state of Earth's global society is just too advanced to not find a solution in which people with different values can co - exist.  
It is interesting we are looking to China as a possible savior, a communist country with dubious human rights issues, and a plethora of moral, ecological, and social issues. I think that says more about our precariousness than anything else.

Are we so desperate? Yes we are. Everyone can see we are collapsing form corruption, greed, and corporate manipulation of nearly all the facets of our society. The constitution died long ago, and our democracy is a farce that supports those already in power. Just look at the trillions of dollars spent on the banks, and financial sectors that brought us to this ugly position in the first place.

It was once said that democracy would fall when the people discovered they could vote themselves free money, and that is precisely what is happening, only the "people" are the bankers, and their related institutions.    

We are looking to China because we have no power to shake of the grip of our masters as they steal or last bits of value and capital. China. Our hope against our masters.

It is truly a sad commentary.

Whether China is ready to lead or not in the world's economic life is completely irrelevant because like it or not it is now the major production powerhouse for the world economy. How it got there is irrelevant just as how the US got its economic power on the backs of slaves and immigrant labor is irrelevant. How China will assert its power is what we should be discussing. China has sufferred perhaps the worst humilliation a country could possibly go through at the hands of the western powers during colonial times. The wealth accumulated during that sad period for them is what financed the post colonial era after WWII where the colonial powers plus Japan did extremely well for themselves. Despite its economic power China still has hundreds of millions of its people in third world status as does India. Both China and India know that the world economic structure must be directed to production that lifts its people up. This is a moral imperative as well as a political necessity for them. If the western powers take the position China and India must conform to how the west structured the world economy to finance the excesses of western consumption at the expense of the masses in China and India then they are going to be sorely disappointed. The structure does need a major overhaul and the US had better be on the right side of this historic change if it expects to maintain influence and a reaonable life style.
Why make fun of the people that buy all the products? Or are they forgetting that its the west who buys chinese goods. And if they make their currency the world currency they cannot control it anymore. And no offense China is a good country, but this Chinese people first policy and repression of free speech is not something i subscrbie too. I have many chinese friends and they are not like this. And remember the good times never last. How would China deal with  extremists? Im jsut curious because saying china first to a muslim radical would not be a good thing.
I live and work in China.  The mindset and impetus behind the culture is economic dominance at any cost.  The world should be on notice - a new form of colonialism is taking shape.  Every financially weak country should prepare for their new Chinese masters.
It is interesting we are looking to China as a possible savior, a communist country with dubious human rights issues, and a plethora of moral, ecological, and social issues. I think that says more about our precariousness than anything else.

Are we so desperate? Yes we are. Everyone can see we are collapsing form corruption, greed, and corporate manipulation of nearly all the facets of our society. The constitution died long ago, and our democracy is a farce that supports those already in power. Just look at the trillions of dollars spent on the banks, and financial sectors that brought us to this ugly position in the first place.

It was once said that democracy would fall when the people discovered they could vote themselves free money, and that is precisely what is happening, only the "people" are the bankers, and their related institutions.    

We are looking to China because we have no power to shake of the grip of our masters as they steal or last bits of value and capital. China. Our hope against our masters.

It is truly a sad commentary.

I agree with Professor Hu's level-headed argument.  Unfortunately, in China, level-headedness does not always win the day.  He will, in fact, be trampled by his nationalist counterparts if the nationalist movement continues as it is currently moving.  A movement of 1.3 billion nationalists is, to the dismay of ruling party officials, even out of the control of the government.
My father is a well established Economist. He believes companies who abandoned simple business
principles such as investing in capitol improvements in US based industry and exported our money abroad began the trend of dimishing the standard of living in the USA.  I think of it as economic treason. Short sighted greed, corporate negligence, nespotism and political incompetency are the legacy left to our citizens after decades of irresponsible public policy and corporate direction which was without the interest of our countries future in mind. The Chinese live in a country which has prohibited their intellectual freedom. Now they are approaching financial dominance. What this tells me is that we live in an era of chaotic crumbling institutions with leadership based on the same criteria with which we elect Home Coming Queens and
Teen Werewolf Contest Winners. If you can't buy it now, forget about buying it later. We need protectionist tarrifs, we need to offer large incentives to companies for retooling old equipment and developing better factories. Why don't we ban the export of all of our  raw natural resources. When I was in college the Chinese were brainwashing their population by organized attacks on effigies of our President, these people want all that we have, and frankly they have taken it. Boycott Chinese products.
This is a frightening concept for many politicians but it works. Why not an embargo on Made In China?
Nationalize Chinese investments in the USA. Regroup. We are the worlds largest consumer, flexing that muscle might make a difference.
Sometime in 2003 the world as afflicted by SARS with the source being China. This deadly outbreak costed $10 billion loss to the global economy apart from lives that were lost. Despite China being the permanent member of the UN Security Council, there was not even an iota of an apology from it. Now, I’m shocked that this country has the conscience to promote Yuan as a Global Currency!!

It is time that the world looked at China from its acts, deeds and intentions against the rest of the world and not by what it says and states. China is the biggest proliferator of Nuclear weapons and technology vis-à-vis Pakistan, North Korea, Iran … etc. It is time for the rest of the world to rebuke any such efforts by China.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/002/504jlpnl.asp
It may not play the leadership role but whether we like it or not, China will play an ever more important role in the future. There are imperfection - just as there are imperfections with any nations or societies - but the rise of China will and is happening no matter what our personal feelings towards them are.
I'm not comfortable with China's position in the world..so, in my small way, I'm very selective in purchases for my family and where they were produced and/or packaged..particularly food.  It's very difficult to find anything NOT made in China..including the more expensive items e.g. clothing,I might have normally been interested in.

I don't consider this protectionism in the true sense of the word...but China's current track record re safety alone is not in my family's best interests.
If Americans would stop buying anything and everything that is made in China they wouldn't even be in the position to have any power over us.  Every one is so fast to shop at Walmart and then moan about not having any jobs.  Good thing China has more than enough jobs to support their economy.  Maybe if people would start buying American made products made by Americans workers it would help our own!  check out terrorfreeoil.org and stillmadeinusa.com as a sampling.  Isn't it amazing though that so many products made in china make us sick?  yet we continue to buy them because they are cheap - damn our health and our wealth!
Great Nations need help sometimes we always look to one another .  History shows it good or bad
I don't think the Chinese are interested in “leading”; they simply want to be treated with fairness and respect, given their country’s terrible treatment by a succession of Western and Eastern powers including Britain, France, Russia and Japan in the 19th and 20th century. It started with Britain’s invasion of China in 1840, when Britain wanted to export opium (yes, OPIUM!!) to China and the Chinese refused. Britain and its “friends” then invaded China, murdering countless Chinese and also burning down their imperial palace. China was defeated and had to pay huge ransoms and made territorial concessions to Britain and its allies for a war they started illegally and immorally against the Chinese! The cruelty and barbarity with which the Chinese were treated was on par with what the Europeans settlers did to the Native Americans. (The Chinese fortunately were a little more resilient than their American Indian cousins and were not wiped out or relegated to the reservations.)

The Chinese have never again trusted the West since. I think the people in the West should study a little about this part of the history – i.e., all the miseries and sufferings brought upon the Chinese by the Europeans and Japanese. This will go a long way towards healing and mutual understanding.
China can barely feed it's people, China can barely provide enough clean water to it's people, most Chinese are still poor, living in the dirt or working for slave wages in factories, being taken advantage of by the secret rich class that still dominates there like in the rest of the world.
China don't have to lead, neighbors will follow when they see a good system of running a country.  As it is now, lesser countries around the world is looking intensely as the west is going a downward trend.  All these may turn out good for the world as luxury life style may not be sustainable for everyone.  In fact I suspect the prosperity of the west so far might have been build up through the past exploitation of the lesser peoples and nations.
Fellow "AMERICANS",  I am in agreement with about 65% of all of your comments. Just one thing to remember is this that world history is getting repeated again. Just one thought I have for you.  In past history we all learned and studied the "Great Roman Empire", well we are that second "Empire" that is going to be destroyed, not by ourtsiders but "WITH IN OUR BORDERS" just like the Romans.  We are destroying ourselfves.  Not trying to be religious, but one thing that I hang my hopes on is that in the Bible it says that the "Eagle" will eventually be triunphant over "EVIL".  So that tells you that "AMERICA" will always be the leader one way or another. Have lots of hope and do a lot to get this ship on a straight path once again.  The "Spirit" of America is too strong to be destroyed by anything.  And remember my Fellow Americans,......"MAY GOD BLESS AMERICA". Thank You, for your attention and lets get to work to get our beloved country back on course.
What's the old saying about "attack a strawman?" China doesn't want to lead. China is not ready to lead and knows it only too well. It wants some limited leadership role in the financial sector given its huge stake in T-bonds but that is it. It's a national policy "BU-CHU-TOU/Don't stick your head out on the international stage. It has plenty of internal problems and wants what every responsible goverment wants: better life for its citizen. That's what its focus is on.
The title of the book might be better translated as Displeased China rather than Unhappy China, to stay closer to the assertive wording of the title. Regarding the published comments, I feel sorry for those who know little or nothing about China but are willing to brave their judgements that China should be filing for Chapter 11, morally, no less. You just have to wonder how many of those who make sweeping statements about giving Taiwan independence and returning Dalai Lama to Tibet actually know where those places are geographically. The great American tradition values respect for the individuality of other people and other culture. It doesn't hurt either if we learn to keep our mouth shut when we don't know what we are about to say.
This isn't a war between countries. This is a war between countries and the mega corporations. The corporations were winning but maybe they got too greedy. Last chance to break them up.
For the first time in over one century, we will have a global hegemon that is not an open, liberal democracy but a highly secretive, oppressive, expansionist power that:

1. Invaded and committed genocides in Tibet, Xinjiang,
2. Systematically persecuted  the Falung Gong,
3. Executes thousands of political prisoners each year,
4. Proliferated nuclear weapons to autocrats in N. Korea, Iran, and Pakistan,
5. Propped one of the world's worst dictators, the Pol Pot & Khmer Rouge, and now Kim Jong Il.
6. Opposes a bigger UN role for peaceful Asian democracies, India and Japan,
7. Runs one of the world's biggest cybercrime rings, stealing documents from US, Thailand, India, Spain, etc many other nations,
8. Sells shoddy products, some of which are fatal to little children,
9. Harvested the internal organs of executed political prisoners,
10. Destroys the livelihood of its own citizens (as in the devastating eathquake might have been caused by 3 Gorges dam).

I am scared. Very scared!

China is here for one reason and one reason only.  Slow and steady won THIS moment of THIS race.  Truthfully - we ( meaning the US ) can't even tie our shoes... or make our own shoes... or - I think it is obvious.  They hold the reins because we gave the reins to them.  Unless we change our thinking... well - the reins are up for grabs - and we fall short now.  It's too bad.  I don't think anybody I know - nor their freinds - or their freinds' friends... wanted to give up the reins.  We had the best idea - but forgot about what was the most important.  Now - because of our lack of ability to draw a line - the obtuse always has the limelight.  I'm sorry if I offend anyone - but the truth of the matter is - we spend more time ( AND MONEY ) barking for the rights of the obtuse.  Like the poor gay guy... I'm not gay.  I also do not care about 'gay issues'.  I really don't give much of anything to hear about the obtuse.  The whole - is what is important.  Look where we are - because even that isn't going to last much longer given the course we are on.  Hope everybody ( yes - even gay people ) keep on keepin' on.
Everyone... good luck.  We are going to need it.
China is full of itself. It's obviously trying to form a world war 3 by "leading" itself in the economy. If it does, it will soon take all of our money, and then invest it on bunch of nazis. LOL
Anyone who has lived in China and seen they way Chinese people drive will understand China is not ready to "lead the world." However, the position of China in the world during the past 100 years has been abnormal. China will and should take a more central role in world affairs. But that means it will have to really join the world community, grant Chinese citizens real civil rights and practice the rule of law.
Give me a break that China is going to lead.  Are they going to lead by examples including arresting attorneys advocating people's rights,firing newspaper editors reporting corruption,murdering Tibetans uprising against racial cleansing,aggresion against Taiwan sovereignty,military expansion in South Sea and Pacific region,bloody hand behind Darfur genocide, etc..

I am a Chinese, and I don't agree with the notion that China should lead the entire world. I believe in a multi-polar world that the Chinese governement has long been advocating for.

But unlike most people in the West, I do believe China has the capacity to lead the world. People in the West has long been saying that China would collapse soon. But China is still here today. Why do the anti-China groups not wake up to the fact that China isn't going to collapse.

I hear a few people here say China is corrupt, but most expert would agree that India is more corrupt, and yet India hasn't collapsed. So why would you think China would?

List of Countries by Corruption :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index
The author of the blog, Eric Baculinao, should mention that this book express the opinion of the Author and not what the Chinese government should do.  So the title "China grapples with new world role" is grossly overstated.  But the author was right before when he published the book "China can say no" more than 10 years ago and China have somewhat complied with its policies.  I doubt that China want to be the world's leader to be the solely responsible for the world's problems but rather want be a responsible stakeholder in the world's affairs.

The author also doesn't have any constructive criticism toward Western's democracy failures.  Many westerners thinks that the Chinese government would crumble yet they come out even stronger.  People should not assume that western democracy fixes the world's problems.
The Chinese are going to lead ?  Like they lead in Darfur by selling weapons to the Sudanese government ? Like they lead in stealing technology from the US ? Please feel free to follow China. They'll lead you right into a Communist prison.
Yes. Just the United States has been doing. By example and grace..
Ameriacan want communism. They need and WANT the gov't to decide for them. Look at smoking, drinking. They blame the govt to educate them. They want the govt to run their business, oversee finance.
"Democracy" for the US is a misnomer for exporting their gov't. Its not a democracy but one believes it via constant propaganda from the media. Free speech, freedom of religion... Try to talk about the US gov't your labeled a terrorist. Bush enacted so many illegal laws based on his IDIOTIC religion holding us hostage. His stem cell, abortion, feed the homeless via relgious groups. China's constitution guaranteed freedom of religion Article 36. It actually guarantees freedom from religion. I abhor missionaires coming to fill my head with THEIR god, or being preached to before a homeless person can havea meal. Its not allowed in china. If you one of the 5 supported gov't religions its protected. OPEN your eyes and realize you only repeating what you are told here but you never question or research your own answers!! Like believing in childrens stories of pink elephants, and invisible friends and mythical GOD. Grow up and do some researched first!!
You'd better come to China ,and see what's the real Chinese culture. DO not belive what the others said.
No, just no.  China doesn't have the ability to lead the world in a damn thing, maybe as the worlds labor center.  But even that is starting to erode, as the quality of life slowly rise's in China and most of its citizens start to organize and demand higher wages / working standards, those cheap factories will move to other nations.  This has already started, most of the "early adopters" that went into China first are now in Vietnam.

Remember China is strong because they devalue their own currency, and force their population to work under near slave like conditions.  Its basically a communistic state run slave system that is at work, and it is slowly coming apart.  There will be an uprising in the next fifty years that will lead to major political change within China.  Try to think of it like the fall of the USSR, Communism can only last so long, until the people become aware of the power they hold over the Government.
I don't know guys?,...but for some reason this is starting to sound more and more biblical...or Nostradamic??...
Why is China so powerful? As I recall it is because the Western powers, particularly the United States began an engagement process with China in 1973 that has led to the adoption of Western-style economics by China and it's subsequent rise in prosperity and influence. These academics seem to forget that China was a backwards basket case until only 30 years ago. The government is having difficulty balancing the needs for growth with the subsequent economic disparity. Is the world willing to float Chinese economic expansion at 8% per year plus just to keep the millions of Chinese kids who graduate from school each year employed? I think China's very size is going to be its limitation when it comes to their status as an emerging world power. Historically, they have always suffered from internal discord. That is what allowed smaller nations to carve China up 100 years ago and there's no reason to think that it won't be a problem for them this ttime around.

Russia has the opposite problem. Their population is only half that of the U.S. and is shrinking due to low birthrates. Russia is essentially a huge empty country whose only economic salvation is massive amounts of resources. Their economy is based on drilling/digging up everything of value under their sod and exporting it. Sounds a lot like Saudi Arabia and I don't see the Saudis dominating the world political and economic scene.

The US has spent itself into exhaustion. Once the massive level of personal debt has been reduced by people paying off credit cards, etc. AND we give up on the idea of giving everyone a social safety net, allowing us to pay down some of the government debt, we will be back on top.


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