A ‘new’ U.S. approach to Iran?
Posted: Wednesday, January 14, 2009 2:12 PM
Filed Under:
Tehran, Iran
By Ali Arouzi, NBC News Producer
TEHRAN, Iran – During the past 30 years, the United States has pondered regime change, military action, and containment as policies toward Iran. None have proved effective.
Now President-elect Barack Obama is expected to try what he calls a "new approach" towards Iran – engagement.
Don’t expect Obama to sip tea with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader who has the final say on all political and state matters, and come away with pledges from Tehran to stop aiding terrorists, abandon its nuclear weapons program or recognize Israel anytime soon.
But what we might see – if the political stars align – is the beginning of considerably lower-level diplomatic engagement, perhaps the establishment of a U.S. diplomatic post in Tehran and some people-to-people, cultural, and sporting exchanges.
"Now that Bush has gone, this is a great chance for us to make friends with America," said Maryam, a Tehran University student. "I think this is the first real chance in 30 years for the two sides to put aside their differences. It’s in everyone’s best interests."
But Farshad, a civil engineer, disagreed. "You know the Americans do not want peace with us. All this talk from Obama about engagement with Iran is an excuse. He wants to look like he has tried to make a deal with us, but really his end goal is to attack us."
If those two comments offer any indication, dealing with Iran is going to be very tricky.
A finger in every regional trouble spot
Iran’s theocrats are a crafty and skilled breed: they have mastered the art of cat and mouse games and defied sanctions and international pressure.
If one looks at the events that have occurred in the region since the attacks of 9/11, including the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, one would think that Iran would be weak and scared. But quite the opposite has occurred: Iran is confident and has established itself as a regional superpower.
Iran has a finger in every major trouble spot in the region. It counsels Syria, funds Hamas, founded Hezbollah, influences Iraq and threatens Israel; it could even, if it chose, be helpful to U.S. interests in Afghanistan.
"President Ahmadinejad does not want stability with the United States, he thrives on instability," said Sayed Laylaz, an economist and political analyst. "If relations between the two countries were normal, then he would not have a podium to rant and rave from."
On the anniversary of the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran last November, Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, said the problems between the United States and Iran were too deep to be resolved easily. The Iranian leader also indicated that he was not interested in partial resolution of the problems between the two sides.
With regard to its nuclear program, Iran has made it very clear that it is not willing to make any concessions, arguing that it has a right to develop nuclear power for it what it says are peaceful means.
Despite strong words from U.S. officials about its nuclear ambitions, Iran’s leaders seem to feel confident that an attack is unlikely, because American forces are stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan, global markets are in turmoil and the world does not have the appetite for another war. And should U.S. forces attempt a more targeted strike on the country’s nuclear facilities, Iran’s leadership believes it can defend itself.
"In the event of the slightest aggression against Iran, every one of the U.S.'s 32 bases in the region is within range of Iranian missiles," Hojat-Ol-Eslam Mojtaba Zolnour, Khamenei’s representative in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, told reporters recently.
"It is possible that some enemies are considering a plan for a brief attack on Iran and [its] strategic installations," he added. "Iran will not permit such a plan, and in such an event, the entire Iranian nation will defeat the enemies, with one voice and with unity."
‘Not taking any option off the table’
Sen. Hillary Clinton, Obama’s nominee to be secretary of state, addressed the issue of Iran during her Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday.
In her testimony, Clinton said the U.S. would seek to halt Iran’s push for nuclear weapons by using diplomacy, sanctions and coalitions with other countries, which she considered a "new" approach.
"We are not taking any option off the table at all, but we will pursue a new, perhaps different approach that will become a cornerstone of what the Obama administration believes is an attitude toward engagement that might bear fruit," she said.
But when pressed on the issue, Clinton acknowledged that the new administration couldn’t predict what the results of attempted engagement with Iran would be.
"We have no illusions, Mr. Chairman, that even with a new administration looking to try to engage Iran in a way that might influence its behavior, that we can predict the results. But the president-elect is committed to that course and we will pursue it," she said.
