Philippines eyes ‘election of the century’
By Ian Williams, NBC News correspondent
MANILA, Philippines – I was standing outside an old church in the poor Tondo neighborhood of Manila, watching people line up for subsidized rice, when I met Jose Torres. The 34-year-old charity worker got straight to the point.
"It’s getting close," he told me. "I’ve been watching it on the Internet. Very close."
It took me a few moments to realize Torres was talking about the U.S. election.
"It’s the election of the century, what with Obama, but I think McCain will win." He couldn’t say quite why he thought McCain will win, but Jose has clearly been crunching the numbers, and meeting an American television news team was a chance to present his bit of punditry.
"We depend on the U.S., even though we are independent, so the November election is going to affect us," he said.
Obama-mania
Mostly though, it’s Obama who gets the attention on the streets here. In another part of Tondo, a crowd of young men flashed "V" for victory signs at us. "Obama," they shouted, while a young woman emerged from a side alley to tell me she was sure Obama would beat "that other guy."
Everybody seemed to have heard of Obama. Even in this impoverished neighborhood, he has captured people’s imagination and there is a notion – however vague – that he represents something different. He embodies the rise of an outsider that even Manila’s poorest can identify with.
Politics in the Philippines is rowdy and celebrity-driven; there's also a great deal of cynicism towards politicians.
"I think Obama will win," Diosdado Iranon, a rice farmer, told me. "I think he has the key to change."
The Philippines also has perhaps the strongest historic ties to the U.S. of any country in Asia. It was once home to vast U.S. military bases, and U.S. Special Forces are currently in the south of the country advising in the fight against a local insurgency.
So there is a strong interest in the American election, with two recent events underlining just how dependent the Philippines is on outside forces, particularly from the U.S.
Closely tied
The U.S. financial crisis has been headline news, dominating the raucous media here in recent days, as newspapers have outbid each other with speculation about whether Wall Street's mess will drag the Philippine economy down with it. The answer is probably not, but it has been a good read.
"When the U.S. sneezes, the Philippines always catches a cold," ran one newspaper headline.
And soaring world food prices this year have rocked a country that is now the world’s largest importer of rice, a painful reminder of how vulnerable they are to international trade.
The Philippines political elite has latched on to Obama’s fund raising methods, his use of the Internet and harvesting of small online donations. Filipino politics are notoriously money-driven, and they’ve been asking whether Obama’s system might serve as a model for the 2010 election here.
"It’s the first time so many youngsters have been brought into politics," former Social Welfare Secretary Dinky Soliman, told me. "That’s a breakthrough," which she also thought could serve as a model for the Philippines.
She also thought that Obama’s experience as a boy in Indonesia – however fleeting – gives him a better understanding of Asia. "That’s good for us," she said – a common view in this region, even if the polls do show he could well lose to "that other guy."
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