Hamas draws Israeli fire, Palestinian praise
Posted: Thursday, April 17, 2008 1:40 PM
Filed Under:
Tel Aviv, Israel
By Martin Fletcher, NBC News Correspondent
TEL AVIV, Israel – You would think that Palestinians in Gaza would be upset at Hamas’ provocative stance against Israel, which has brought economic sanctions and contributed to massive unemployment and food and fuel shortages.
It has also brought Israel and the Palestinians closer toward a military confrontation in Gaza that Hamas cannot win.
But instead, polls show that Hamas is tightening its grip on power and growing in popularity. Resistance pays in the polls.
Following a storm of Palestinian rockets, Israel killed 120 Palestinians in Gaza six weeks ago and bought a few weeks of relative calm. Now Hamas is back again, firing rockets and ambushing Israeli soldiers.
In return they got 20 dead Palestinians on Wednesday and provoked yet more threats from Israel that it would launch a major offensive to clean out Gaza of rockets and gunmen.
However, Hamas has about 20,000 trained and well-equipped fighters ready. That means that if Israel were to invade, it would be long, bloody and painful for both sides. But still, Hamas appears to want this to happen
Border tensions
Anger is building in Gaza not only against Israel, but Egypt. Complaints are voiced more and more loudly against Egypt's refusal to open its border with Gaza.
After Hamas blew open the Rafah border earlier this year, and Gazans tasted the whiff of brief freedom and easier movement in and out of Gaza, they want it again, badly.
Hamas is said to have mined the border wall again, and to have its men in position ready to blow the wall down. Meanwhile, Egypt has reinforced its police with elite soldiers ready to repel invaders. That would be another bloody scenario.
So Gaza is facing a bloodbath on two fronts, against Israel as well as Egypt. In fact, Israel and Egypt are said to be cooperating in their preparations close to the Rafah border.
Popularity growing
So what is Hamas up to? Do they want a war or is it just a growing sense of desperation at their inability to bring any improvement to the lives of Gazans, a failure that they are masking by building up external threats?
Whatever it is, it's working. Not only is Hamas more popular than before in Gaza, but all indications are that they are growing more popular in the West Bank, too, and that they would win elections for president which are scheduled for January 2009. That prospect terrifies Israel, as well as the head of the rival Fatah Party, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
An explanation is provided by a poll released Wednesday that shows the three most popular leaders in the Arab world are not, for example, leaders of Morocco or the Persian Gulf who have brought stability and prosperity to many citizens. Instead, they are Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Syrian President Bashar Assad and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Why? They face up to America, and by extension, what they call the "little Satan": Israel.
The conclusion is that the more Hamas faces up to Israel, the more popular it becomes, regardless of the hardship it brings to its people. It's a bluff, because everybody involved understands that Israel has the power to destroy Hamas at will; the question is, does Israel have the will to do it?
The speculation is that the answer is yes, but not yet. Israel's 60th birthday celebrations in mid-May, the arrival of President Bush and other world leaders to join the party, and ongoing military preparations all conspire to delay Israel's attack on Gaza. Nobody doubts that it is coming, though.
Early summer is the best bet for Israel to call Hamas’ bluff. The destruction of Hamas military power in Gaza would serve Israel well, not only because it would weaken the threat from Gaza, but because it would destroy Hamas’ chance of taking over the West Bank through presidential elections. Nobody would be happier than the Fatah leadership and Abbas.