An exit strategy without an exit
Posted: Thursday, January 24, 2008 4:54 PM
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Baghdad, Iraq
By Richard Engel, Middle East bureau chief
Nearly half a decade since the big bangs of "Shock and Awe," the United States and the Iraqi government are about to start writing a plan for U.S. forces to exit the war in Iraq, but not the country.
Senior U.S. and Iraqi officials will soon begin negotiating a strategic agreement to answer critical questions about the future role and commitment of U.S. forces in Iraq.
The agreement, being tentatively called the U.S.-Iraq Friendship and Cooperation Agreement, could be the most important bilateral arrangement since the war, setting up U.S.-Iraqi relations for years, if not decades, to come.
American and Iraqi negotiators so far seem to have similar visions for the agreement. Both sides see a long-term U.S. military commitment to support, equip and train Iraqi forces.
A new mission for U.S. troops
On Thursday Iraq’s foreign minister, Hoshar Zebari, one of Iraq’s four principal negotiators, told NBC News the agreement should be finished by July and calls for a new mission for U.S. troops.
"What kind of role does Iraq want the U.S. forces to play?" I asked.
"I think to continue the role of building, supporting and arming the Iraqi security forces, and also to provide support, let’s say, on request in the future because we want our forces to be self reliant to stand on their own," said Zebari. "We cannot continue to rely and depend on the U.S. support indefinitely. I think we can, and we know how, to defend ourselves and how to stand up – provided we are given the means."
"So you would like U.S. forces to stay on bases to come out and provide support when they’re asked to do?" I asked.
"I think that’s the idea. Instead of carrying out these daily patrols, exposure, and combat missions, you see, this would be changed. And this is a plus really both for Iraqis and for the American soldiers," he said.
Time of the essence
The timing is critical and somewhat controversial. Both U.S. and Iraqi negotiators want to finish the agreement while the Bush administration is still in office. It’s reasonable. They don’t want to start from square one with a new administration.
But critics say the Bush administration is trying to lock the United States into an open-ended military commitment in Iraq before leaving office.
On Thursday, Iraq was putting down markers. Zebari said Iraq wants the agreement to include:
- A U.S. commitment of military support and protection
- Clarification of the legal status of U.S. troops and private security contractors, including Blackwater USA, both currently immune from Iraqi prosecution
- A counter-terrorism partnership
- Continued U.S. training and supplies of military hardware
A senior American negotiator told NBC News that Washington wants the agreement to be flexible and said it will not include details about specific troop levels or permanent U.S. bases in Iraq.
When I asked a senior Iraqi official if the agreement means there will be long-term American bases in Iraq, he said, "This is an agreement of enduring military support. The soldiers are going to have to stay someplace. They can’t stay in the air."
