Lebanon’s uncertain future
Posted: Monday, January 29, 2007 10:14 AM
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Beirut, Lebanon
By Paul Nassar, NBC News Producer
It is a journey that I have made countless times. Arriving in the city I was born in and left -- sometimes even fled -- more times than I care to remember in the past 35 years, has become something of a routine for me. There is no doubt that things have changed here in those years.
The bitter memory of the civil war receded and the battle-scarred buildings and roads have given way to brand new highways and glimmering high-rises. The city has regained the cosmopolitan essence that it had all but lost.
Beirut today reflects the makeup of the whole country, with its diverse population. Muslim and Christian neighborhoods melt into each other, separated in most cases by nothing more than a narrow street. In the historic downtown, minarets and church steeples vie for attention, as if in competition with each other. It is the only city I know where conversations are drowned out by both the muezzin's call for prayer and the chiming of church bells.
My arrival here on Friday should have been no different from the other trips I've made to Beirut. This time, however, things are far from normal. I landed here less than 24 hours after one of the most violent riots between the opposing sectarian groups claimed the lives of at least three people.
As I drove past the Beirut Arab University, I could see some of the remnants of Thursday's clashes: an overturned minibus here, a half burned tire there. Violence is no stranger to Lebanon, but most people had hoped that sectarian strife was something firmly rooted in the (albeit recent) past.
Divisions run deep
Civil war raged here from 1975 until 1990 and resolved none of the basic fundamental problems that blight Lebanon. Deeply divided along sectarian groupings, the main fault lines that run through the Lebanese political landscape were papered-over. Exhaustion had set in and for a while that was enough to sustain a fragile peace here.
This summer's war between Israel and Hezbollah, the paramilitary political force here that represents most, but not all, of Lebanon's Shiite community, put the spotlight back on the cracks that run deep in this country of 17 different religious communities.
A seemingly unbridgeable schism developed between the moderate Sunni Muslim, Christian and Druze factions on one side and the mostly Shiite groups on the other. The alliance of the former groups backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia blamed Hezbollah for igniting the devastating war, while the latter claimed that the others had almost colluded with Israel during the month long battle.
Hezbollah emerged bruised but survived the onslaught to resurface stronger than before. It claimed a "divine victory" over its nemesis then turned its attention inward, demanding an ever-increasing share of power. The continued financial, military and ideological support that the group gets from an increasingly emboldened Iran and its junior partner, Syria, ensures that these countries continue to have a strong say as to what happens in Lebanon.
What kind of Lebanon do people really want?
In reaction to this summer's events, the opposing political factions hardened their positions. Though the divisions breakdown along sectarian lines, the real issues at hand are what kind of Lebanon do these communities want? A pro-western businessman's haven or an Islamic government emulating Iran?
No sooner had Israel's bombing stopped than another war erupted on the country's airwaves and newspaper columns. Broadcasters and print journalists here mirror the position of their respective stations and papers most of which are owned by the political factions. Lebanon enjoys a level of freedom in the press unknown anywhere else in the Arab world, but the sniping and insults meted out daily on the main news broadcasts helped each side dig in a little deeper until an internal clash became inevitable.
There is a look of shock etched in people's faces here. Most remember well the misery of war and nobody it seems wants to experience a rerun of it. In this light it’s understandable that almost every conversation starts with questions like "So what do you think will happen? Surely not another war?" It is as if people are desperate for an answer, any answer that will assuage their fears.
What seems most frustrating of all is that the Lebanese feel completely helpless in trying to resolve the situation. They know that they are caught in a political game, the results of which are not decided in Beirut's streets or ballot boxes, but rather in the corridors of power in Washington, Riyadh, Tehran and Damascus. It is in these cities, and not here, that the outcome of what happens to Lebanon will be determined.
So for now, the Lebanese are mere pawns in a much greater game over which they have little control. It is no wonder, therefore, that people around me are holding their breath and praying that the winds of war will not return to ravage this small and fragile country.
